钼价格前景乐观强力买入金钼股份,对洛阳钼业的首次评级为买入(摘要).pdf

2009 年 9 月 15 日 中国金属及采矿 高华证券投资研究 1 2009 年 9 月 15 日 中国金属及采矿中国金属及采矿 钼价格前景乐观，强力买入金钼股份,对洛阳钼业的首次评级为买入摘要 预计预计 2010 年开始盈利增长势头强劲，建议买入金钼股份和洛阳钼业年开始盈利增长势头强劲，建议买入金钼股份和洛阳钼业 我们将两家钼业公司金钼股份（JDC，601958.SS，买入，位于强力买入名 单）和洛阳钼业（CMOC，3993.HK，买入）首次纳入研究范围。鉴于 2009 年下 半年和 2010 年钼价存在潜在上涨空间，我们看好这两家公司；而且我们预计这 两家公司的盈利将从 2010 年开始呈现强劲的增长势头，因此存在估值重估的机 会。 预计钼价在更趋均衡的供求格局推动下大幅上涨预计钼价在更趋均衡的供求格局推动下大幅上涨 我们认为 2009 年全球钼供应过剩的状况将在 2010 年变得更为均衡，因此看好 2009 年下半年和 2010 年钼的定价前景，主要原因在于 1 供应面的种种制约因素将导致供应同比增长有限供应面的种种制约因素将导致供应同比增长有限在我们看来，原生钼的潜 在产量增长将被伴生钼产量的下滑所抵消，因为现有成熟的铜矿所生产产品的品 位不断下降，而且新开发铜矿的钼含量较低。 2 钢铁消费的增加以及其它用途导致钼需求上升钢铁消费的增加以及其它用途导致钼需求上升全球 75的钼需求都与钢铁 有关，我们预计 2010 年全球成品钢的表观消费量同比增长 12，因此预计钼需 求会有所上升。此外，钼在航空航天以及能源领域的应用可能也有助于钼消费的 增长。 更看好金钼股份，因其盈利增长空间更大更看好金钼股份，因其盈利增长空间更大 虽然我们对金钼股份和洛阳钼业的评级都是买入，但相比而言我们更看好金钼股 份，原因在于1 该公司成本结构较低，因此盈利增长空间更高；2 最近收购东 沟矿区后，预计 2010-2011 年钼产量有望增长。 风险风险 我们的目标价格及投资观点所面临的主要风险包括需求复苏力度弱于预期，这可 能导致钼价的潜在涨幅小于预期。 *全文翻译将随后提供 评级和评级和 12 个月目标价格个月目标价格 Company NameTickerRatingPricing12-m TP Share price Potential Currency11-SepUpside JDC601958.SSBuy*Rmb26.4019.4036 CMOC3993.HKBuyHKD8.206.4328 *表示该股位于我们的亚太强力买入名单。 资料来源Datastream、高华证券研究预测 公司概要公司概要 JDCCMOC Ticker601958.SS3993.HK Company locationShaanxi provinceHenan province Molybdenum product typePrimaryPrimary Reserves 000 tonnes1,234498 of total reserves in China3715 Production volume tonnes - 200814,03515,480 Production volume tonnes - 2009E11,70015,052 Production volume tonnes - 2010E15,50014,850 Production volume tonnes - 2011E23,75014,850 资料来源Datastream、高华证券研究预测 高华证券感谢高盛分析师张榕容在本报告中的贡 献。 洪进扬洪进扬 86106627-3191 | jim.hung 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业 务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能 存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯 一因素。有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析 师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业 务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能 存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯 一因素。有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析 师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 September 15, 2009 China Metals buy on strong fundamentals”, dated September 2, 2009, our channel checks also suggest that Chinese developers have recently started to purchase land bank and will start construction in 2H09. We also note that yoy growth rate for year-to-date real estate fixed asset investments in China rose from 4.9 in February 2009 to 19.8 in August 2009 Exhibit 7, further strengthening our view that we should see improving steel demand from the property market. Continued strong growth in auto sales With the announcement of the Rmb5bn car subsidy program in March 2009, the yoy growth rate for monthly auto sales went up from -14 in January 2009 to 81 in August 2009 Exhibit 8. We expect to see continued strong auto sales in China to lead to increasing steel demand. September 15, 2009 China Metals however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. September 15, 2009 China Metals Mining Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 21 Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analysts investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the groups historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive A. The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage groups historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral N. 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