常村煤矿矿井通风系统稳定性评价及仿真预测.pdf

全日制硕士学位论文全日制硕士学位论文 常村煤矿矿井通风系统稳定性评价及仿真预测 Stability uation and Simulation Prediction of Mine Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine 作者姓名韩宝华 导师姓名马恒教授 学科专业安全管理工程 研究方向安全系统工程 完成日期2019 年 6 月 5 日 辽宁工程技术大学 Liaoning Technical University 万方数据 论 常 村 煤 矿 矿 井 通 风 系 统 稳 定 性 评 价 及 仿 真 预 测 韩 宝 华 辽 宁 工 程 技 术 大 学 万方数据 万方数据 中图分类号TD724学校代码10147 UDC622.4密级公 开 辽宁工程技术大学 全日制硕士学位论文全日制硕士学位论文 常村煤矿矿井通风系统稳定性评价及仿真预测 Stability uation and Simulation Prediction of Mine Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine 作者姓名韩宝华学号471620413 导师姓名马恒 （教授）副导师姓名无 申请学位工学硕士培养单位安全科学与工程学院 学科专业安全管理工程研究方向安全系统工程 二○一九年六月 万方数据 致致谢谢 时光飞逝，岁月如梭，三年的研究生生活即将过去，我所收获的不仅仅仅是愈加丰厚 的知识，更重要的是在阅读、实践中所培养的思维方式、表达潜力和广阔视野。很庆幸这 三年来我遇到了如此多的良师益友，无论在学习上、生活上，还是工作上，都给予了我无 私的帮忙和热心的照顾，让我在一个充满温馨的环境中度过三年的研究生生活。感恩之情 难以用言语量度，谨以最朴实的话语致以最崇高的敬意。 首先，我第一个要感谢的就是我的导师马恒教授。导师马恒教授渊博的专业知识、严 谨的治学态度，精益求精的工作作风，诲人不倦的高尚师德，严于律己、宽以待人的崇高 风范，平易近人的人格魅力对本人影响深远。在毕业论文写作期间，无论是从课题的选取 到论文的最终完成，马恒老师都始终给予我细心的指导和不懈的支持，在此谨向马恒老师 致以诚挚的谢意和崇高的敬意。 感谢安全科学与工程学院的各位领导和老师，感谢您们在我研究生学习期间给予的各 种指导与帮助，感谢学院提供的优雅的科研环境和学习条件 感谢课题组的师兄弟、姐妹们在我论文研究期间对我的支持与帮助真诚的感谢博士 师兄乔征龙在我攻读硕士期间给予我的各种无私帮助。正是他们的帮助使我的论文能顺利 进行。 感谢我的室友，三年的朝夕相处，让我成长很多，在此向室友表示诚挚的感谢。 感谢我的家人在我求学期间给予的大力支持和帮助。特别感谢我的父母对我的养育之 恩，愿他们身体健康 感谢前人所做的研究工作，为本论文提供了参考。 最后，再次对所有帮助过我的老师、同学、家人以及我的母校辽宁工程技术大学表示 衷心的感谢 万方数据 I 摘摘要要 矿井通风系统在煤矿安全生产的过程中起着非常重要的作用。科学、合理、稳定、可 靠的通风系统，是预防煤矿“一通三防”事故最有效、最直接、最常用的方法和手段。在 矿井生产中，矿井通风系统是否稳定对于矿井安全生产至关重要。提高矿井通风系统稳定 性途径，首先通过对矿井通风系统的稳定性现状进行综合评价并提出改进措施，其次是增 加安全投入改善通风系统。而为了实现安全投入收益最大化，需要对安全投入后的通风系 统进行预测分析， 进而合理调整资源投入比例， 有针对性的提升矿井通风系统稳定性水平， 避免资源不合理利用。 本文根据山西潞安环能股份公司常村煤矿的实际情况， 结合常村煤矿多风井、 大风量、 高瓦斯和大阻力等特点，从技术、安全、经济角度建立一套完整的常村煤矿通风系统稳定 性评价指标体系。评价指标体系包含了矿井通风环境、通风设备设施、通风安全管理、通 风抗灾能力及职工情况五大影响稳定性的因素，通过运用层次分析法确定指标的权重，并 结合属性数学理论形成最终的通风系统稳定性综合评价模型。通过构建的通风系统稳定性 综合评价模型，对常村煤矿通风系统稳定性进行了综合评价，评价结果为良好，属于较稳 定水平。 以通风系统综合评价为基础，从系统动力学角度，应用 Vensim_PLE 软件对常村煤矿 未来 2 年的通风系统稳定性水平进行仿真预测，总结其动态变化规律。通过不同安全投入 对比仿真分析，常村煤矿应着重加强通风安全管理方面投入力度。此仿真方法能够有效得 出提升常村煤矿通风系统稳定性的路径，从而实现合理优化资源配置，对常村煤矿长久安 全发展具有指导意义。 该论文有图 18 幅，表 41 个，参考文献 64 篇。 关键词关键词矿井通风系统；稳定性；属性数学；评价体系；系统动力学 万方数据 II Abstract Mine ventilation system plays a very important role in the process of coal mine safety production. Scientific, reasonable, stable and reliable ventilation system is the most effective, direct and most commonly used and means to prevent coal mines from “one pass and three defenses“. Whether or not the mine ventilation system is stable in mine production is critical to mine safety production. To improve the stability of the mine ventilation system, firstly, through the comprehensive uation of the stability status of the mine ventilation system and propose improvement measures, the second is to increase the safety to improve the ventilation system. In order to maximize the safety revenue, it is necessary to predict and analyze the ventilation system after the safety , and then reasonably adjust the proportion of resource , and specifically improve the stability level of the mine ventilation system to avoid unreasonable use of resources. According to the actual situation of Changcun coal mine of Shanxi Luan pro-environment energy joint-stock company., combined with the characteristics of windy wells, large air volume, high gas and large resistance in Changcun coal mine, a complete set of Changcun coal mine is established from the perspective of technology, safety and economy. Ventilation system stability uation index system. The uation index system includes the five factors that affect the stability of the mine ventilation environment, ventilation equipment, ventilation safety management, ventilation and disaster resistance and staff conditions. The weight of the indicators is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process, and the final ventilation system is ed by combining the mathematical theory of attributes. Stability comprehensive uation model. Through the construction of the comprehensive uation model of ventilation system stability, the stability of the ventilation system of Changcun coal mine was comprehensively uated, and the uation results were good and belonged to a relatively stable level. Based on the comprehensive uation of ventilation system, from the perspective of system dynamics, Vensim_PLE software is used to simulate and predict the stability level of ventilation system in Changcun coal mine in the next 2 years, and summarize its dynamic variation law. Through comparison and simulation analysis of different safety s, Changcun coal mine should focus on strengthening the investment in ventilation safety management. This simulation can effectively draw the path to improve the stability of the ventilation system of Changcun coal mine, thus achieving reasonable optimization of resource allocation, 万方数据 III which has guiding significance for the long-term safety development of Changcun coal mine. The paper has 18 pictures, 41 tables, and 64 references. Keywords Mine ventilation system; Stability; Attribute mathematics; uation system; System dynamics 万方数据 IV 目目录录 摘摘要要..............................................................................................................................................I 目目录录...........................................................................................................................................IV 图清单图清单........................................................................................................................................VIII 表清单表清单...........................................................................................................................................IX 变量注释表变量注释表.................................................................................................................................XII 1 绪论绪论.............................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义......................................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状......................................................................................................................1 1.3 研究内容及技术路线..............................................................................................................4 2 基本理论分析基本理论分析.............................................................................................................................6 2.1 矿井通风系统稳定性评价分析..............................................................................................6 2.2 系统动力学理论分析..............................................................................................................9 2.3 本章小结................................................................................................................................10 3 矿井通风系统稳定性评价指标体系的构建矿井通风系统稳定性评价指标体系的构建...........................................................................11 3.1 矿井通风系统稳定性评价指标构建基本原则.................................................................... 11 3.2 矿井通风系统稳定性评价指标构建流程............................................................................12 3.3 矿井通风系统稳定性评价指标选取....................................................................................13 3.4 常村煤矿通风系统稳定性评价指标量化及分级标准........................................................14 3.5 本章小结................................................................................................................................20 4 矿井通风系统稳定性评价模型构建矿井通风系统稳定性评价模型构建.......................................................................................21 4.1 矿井通风系统稳定性评价流程............................................................................................21 4.2 矿井通风系统稳定性评价方法............................................................................................22 4.3 常村煤矿通风系统稳定性评价指标权重............................................................................27 4.4 本章小结................................................................................................................................33 5 常村煤矿通风系统稳定性评价常村煤矿通风系统稳定性评价...............................................................................................34 5.1 矿井通风系统概况................................................................................................................34 5.2 常村煤矿通风系统稳定性评价............................................................................................36 5.3 评价结果分析........................................................................................................................45 5.4 本章小结................................................................................................................................46 万方数据 V 6 常村煤矿通风系统稳定性水平常村煤矿通风系统稳定性水平 SD 仿真预测仿真预测........................................................................47 6.1 SD 建模目的..........................................................................................................................47 6.2 SD 分析流程..........................................................................................................................47 6.3 常村煤矿通风系统稳定性水平 SD 预测.............................................................................48 6.4 SD 仿真及结果分析..............................................................................................................53 6.5 本章小结................................................................................................................................63 7 结论与展望结论与展望...............................................................................................................................64 7.1 结论........................................................................................................................................64 7.2 展望........................................................................................................................................64 参考文献参考文献......................................................................................................................................65 附录附录 1 煤矿通风系统稳定性指标专家调查问卷煤矿通风系统稳定性指标专家调查问卷......................................................................68 作者简历作者简历.......................................................................................................................................72 学位论文原创性声明学位论文原创性声明................................................................................................................73 学位论文数据集学位论文数据集...........................................................................................................................74 万方数据 VI Contents Abstract...........................................................................................................................................I Contents....................................................................................................................................... IV List of Figures...........................................................................................................................VIII List of Tables................................................................................................................................IX List of Variables........................................................................................................................XIII 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background and Significance of Research................................................................................1 1.2 Research Status at Home and Abroad........................................................................................1 1.3 Content and Technical Route of Research.................................................................................4 2 Basic Theoretical BasisAnalysis................................................................................................6 2.1 Stability uation of Mine Ventilation System...................................................................... 6 2.2 Theoretical Analysis of System Dynamics................................................................................9 2.3 Brief Summary........................................................................................................................ 10 3 Construction of uation Index System for Mine Ventilation System Stability..............11 3.1 Basic Principles for Constructing Stability uation Index of Mine Ventilation System....11 3.2 Mine Ventilation System Stability uation Index Construction Process............................12 3.3 Selection of Stability uation Index for Mine Ventilation System.....................................13 3.4 Quantification and Grading Standards for Stability uation Index of Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine...............................................................................................................14 3.5 Brief Summary........................................................................................................................ 20 4 Construction of Stability uation Model for Mine Ventilation System..........................22 4.1 Mine Ventilation System Stability uation Process........................................................... 21 4.2 Mine Ventilation System Stability uation ...........................................................22 4.3 Changcun Coal Mine Ventilation System Stability uation Index Weight........................ 27 4.4 Brief Summary........................................................................................................................ 33 5 Stability uation of Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine...................................34 5.1 Overview of Changcun Coal Mine..........................................................................................34 5.2 Stability uation of Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine...................................... 36 5.3Analysis of uation Results................................................................................................45 万方数据 VII 5.4 Brief Summary........................................................................................................................ 46 6 Simulation and Prediction of Stability Level of Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine.......................................................................................................................................... 47 6.1 SD Modeling Purpose..............................................................................................................47 6.2 SDAnalysis Process................................................................................................................47 6.3 SD Prediction of Stability Level of Ventilation System in Changcun Coal Mine...................48 6.4 SD Simulation and Results Analysis......