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SectorSketchandSWOTAnalysisoftheDutchOilSector–FinalPresentation–DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilDivision,TheHague,3rdFebruary1999,AconflictappearstobeemergingbetweenthetraditionalDutcheconomicstrengthsandmorerecentenvironmentalconcerns,Dutcheconomicprosperity,Oilindustryfocussedonexports,Foundedontrading,MotorofRotterdamtradingstrength,Dutchenvironment,Legitimateenvironmentalconcerns,Highpopulationdensitylow-lying-vulnerabletoGlobalwarming,GlobalwarmingCongestionNoise,Exportindustrymustbeinternationallycompetitivetosurvive,Toughenvironmentalstance,Conflict,,Contents,Page,A.ExtractsfromSectorSketchB.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsC.SWOTAnalysisC.1.StrengthsC.2.WeaknessesC.3.OpportunitiesC.4.ThreatsD.Recommendations,47111217232631,A.ExtractsfromSectorSketch,TheDutchoilindustryhastraditionallybeenstrongandinternationallyorientated,Only15oftotaloilsupplydestinedforhomemarketAccountsfor9ofEUrefiningcapacityKeysynergieswithandsupplytoDutchchemicalsindustryBeneluxchemicalclusterissecondlargestinEurope,Rotterdam‘world’sleadingport’for30yearsRoad,rail,inlandwaterwayandpipelineconnectionstomanymajormarkets,MajoroiltradingmarketintheEUtimezoneandoneofthebig3globallyRotterdam,Houston,Singapore,Eachsectorintheoilindustryfacesimportantissuesaffectingitscompetitiveposition,Oilrefining,IncreasingcostsofenvironmentalcomplianceMergers/allianceschangethecompetitivesceneOvercapacityandlowreturns,Storage,SupportstheinternationalbusinessFostersindependenttradersOvercapacityandlowreturns,Trading,StrongroleofrefiningcompaniesDependentoncriticalmassofRotterdammarket,Bunkering,ImportantfueloiloutletforrefinersRefinersbecomingdominant,Pipelines,PipelinesandwaterwayskeytoRotterdamlogisticaladvantageDominatedbyprivateorconsortiumownedpipelines,Chemicals,ImportantsynergieswithoilsectorSectorenteringdownturnLong-termgrowthpotential,B.Feedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviews,Environmentalandclean-upregulationswerecentraltoviewsexpressedbymostinterviewees,RoleoftheNetherlands,Decisionmakingbodies,Landrelease,Currentsituation,Industryviewpoint,Alternativeapproach,Goesaheadofcompetingcountriesonenvironmentalissues,Thisunderminescompetitivepositionofoilandchemicalindustries,LeadbyinfluencingEUconsensusratherthanbyexample,SignificantregionalandnationalvariationonenvironmentalregulationsCompetitiontobegreener,Variationpreventstheexistenceofa‘levelplayingfield’,Placeenvironmentaldecisionmakingandimplementationinthehandsofonebody,Clean-upcostsareaidableexitbarrier,Landcanbereleasedifeconomicallyviable,Costsofclean-upshouldbebalancedagainstcostoflandreclamation,However,thegovernment’swillingnesstodiscussandreachconsensuswasappreciated,Allintervieweesrecognisedthe‘WorldClass’infrastructureofRotterdam,althoughtherearethreemajorcontentiousissues,Portfees,Commoncarrierpipeline,Maasvlakte2,Currentsituation,Industryviewpoint,Alternativeapproach,Harbourduesbasedontonnageratherthanservicesused,RotterdamismoreexpensivethanAntwerp,LeHavreorHamburg.Theoilindustry‘subsidises’thecontainerindustry,Basechargesmoreonservicesthanontonnagebasis,Nocommon-carrierpipelineexists,Maybeeconomicallyviable,Considercommoncarrierwhereextraflexibilityneeded,butcompensateownersofpipelinesforinvestmentandrisk,Positivediscussionlikelynewlandreclamationathighcost,ExtralandwillfavourchemicalsectorTheoilindustrydoesnotrequireextraland,Ensureproperfundingaasvlakte2Noburdenonoilindustry,Pressureforrationalisationislikelytocoincidewithtimingofinvestmenttomeetfuturefuelspecifications,Overcapacity,Futurefuelspecifications,Currentsituation,Industryviewpoint,Despiterecentclosures,thereremainsupto15overcapacity,Asmanyas13EUrefineriesneedtocloseIssuecomplicatedfurtherbyrecentmergersClean-upcostsremainthebiggestbarriertoexit;socialcostsarealsosignificant,Targetspecificationsfor2005require40bninvestmentacrosstheEU,OftheDutchrefineries,onlyEssoandShellarewellplacedtomeet2005specswithoutmajorinvestment,C.SWOTAnalysis,C.1.Strengths,TheDutchoilsectorislargeandwellconcentrated,accountingfor9ofEUrefiningcapacitycomparedto4.5consumption,,Europoort,,Pernis,,,CrudeCapacityb/d,Nerefco,Shell,Esso,Total,KPI,SDutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs,RBPanalysis,FCCequivalentconversioncapacitydistillationcapacity,DistillationcapacityMT/year,,,,,,,,,12,25,99,3.8,20.0,7.4,9,18.7,37,KPIEuropoort,Total/DOWVlissingen,EssoRotterdam,ShellPernis,NerefcoBP/TexacoEuropoort,34EURefineriesaverage,,66,38Germany,40UnitedKingdom,24France,23Belgium,,AverageConversionCapacities,54TheNetherlands,,,,,,,Inaddition,theNetherlandsattemptstoleadratherthangowithEuropeanenvironmentallegislation,EUhassetnewproductspecificationsButNo‘levelplayingfield’forrefineryemissionsatEUlevelEnforcementofregulationsstricterinNetherlandsInconsistenciesbetweenNational,RegionalandMunicipalauthorities,DutchOilSector,Thecostofclean-upregulationsinRotterdamisdistortingtheincentivesfortheoilindustrytoreleaseunusedland,but,TheLose-LoseoutcomecanonlychangetoWin-Winbyalteringtheincentivesforlandrelease,Clean-upcostsinEUarebetweenNLG100m-NLG400mperrefineryNLG60-120/m2Evenwhereplantshaveclosed,oilindustryhasincentivetoretainlandandpayrentratherthanpayimmediateclean-upcostSimilareconomicsconstrainreleaseofsurpluslandfromstorageterminals,ProjectedshortageoflandforexpansionisdrivingMaasvlakte2projectCostoflandreclamationisexpensiveandwillbebornebytaxpayerinitiallyNLG500/m2,GovernmentpolicyisseentofocussolelyonRotterdam,partlyasaconsequenceofMainPortPolicy,Vlissingen,Onlyonejettyterminalupto120,000dwtIsolatedfromnaturalgaspipelines,WhenchemicalcompaniesfoundRotterdamunfavourable,AntwerpwaschosenaboveotherDutchports,,Amsterdam,Growthlimitedbywaterdepth/shipsizeLackofrefininglimitssynergiesbetweenoilandchemicals,,C.3.Opportunities,Thereareopportunitiesfornewbusinessesorsubstantialextensionstoexistingactivities,Energy,Pipelines,Electricityco-generationLowlevelheatcollectionanddistributionCO2collectionforgreenhouses,CommoncarriertoreducetransportcostsandmeetenvironmentalaimsEthylenepipelineforchemicals,Highvalue-addedproduction,Storage,UpgradeproductsforrefineriesunabletomeetenvironmentalspecsHighqualityproductstrategyforexporttopremiummarketsPushforhighershareofchemicalsgrowth,UseexcessstoragetoholdstrategicstocksforwholeEU,,,,Overcapacityisalong-termproblemthatneedstobeaddressedbyindustrybutmaybehelpedbyGovernmentassistance,FocusesinvestmentonareasofstrengthThereispotentialforindividualplantclosuresRecentmergers/clusterapproachmayleadtonewcombinations,Opportunity,Action,Aim,,,,,Strongestunitsoperatenearfuelcapacity,Landwouldbemadeavailableforportexpansion,GovernmentIntroduceincentivesforclean-upoferorsurplussites,Bestuseofunusedland,Companiesoptimisewithininternationalnetworks,Focusonstrongcompetitiveunits,Governmentsponsordiscussiononoptimisation,Alternativeforuncompetitiveunits,,C.4.Threats,Thegreatestthreatisthatpressuretoadoptthehighestenvironmentalstandardswillhittheoilindustrytoohard,anderodepublicsupport,Over-zealousenvironmentalismcouldbreaktheDutchoilindustryNetherlandsismuchtougheronpolicingcommonenvironmentalrulesthanotherEUstatesPressuregroupsandMunicipalitiescompetetoappeargreenerImplementationsarenotseenasconsistentwiththetrueneeds,,Oilmaynolongerbeseenasacontributortosociety,HighcostsassociatedwithRotterdamarecurrentlyoutweighedbyadvantages.Shiftsinthelabourrate-productivitybalancecouldchangethis,PortduesontonnagebasishasledtohighestcrudeimportcostsinEuropeHighconstructioncostsOneofthehighestlabourratesinEuropeHighsocialcosts,CompetitivelogisticsProximitytomarketplaceHighlabourproductivitySkilledworkforce/tradingexperienceLowportlandrentals,,,,Externalcompetitionmayincreaseorbecomedistorted,EUCompetition,GlobalCompetition,CheaperservicesatcompetingportsPetropreneursbuycheapassetsEUmemberstatesorunionssupportownweakerrefineries,MiddleEastoilproductandbasechemicalexportsChemicalgrowthattractedtoUSbylowercosts,Substitutionandnewtechnologycouldcausea‘surprise’dropinoildemand,butnosignificantchangelikelybefore2005,Transport,CommonrailtechnologywillmakedieselsubstantiallymoreefficientHybridenginesBiomassethanolcouldsubstitutemogasanddieselFuelcelltechnologynosignificantimpactbefore2005IncreaseindieselmarketsharemaydistortrefineryeconomicsLPG/CNGsubstitutionofmogasanddiesel,Thecurrentverylowcrudeoilpriceswilldelayanysubstitutioneffects,Otheruses,GasfromRussia/NorthSeawillsubstituteheatingoilinBelgiumandGermanyRenewablefuelsinexportmarketsFOforelectricityGOhome/commercialheatingLFOforindustry,,D.Recommendations,Fourkeyissuesneedtobeaddressedtoensurelongterminternationalcompetitivenessoftheoilindustry,Longtermcompetitiveness,Stableindustrialpolicy,Affordableenvironmentalpolicy,Actiononinfrastructurecosts,Optimisationofoilindustry,Thereisalsoscopeforstreamliningproceduresandencouragingnewvalue-addedactivities,Astable,visiblegovernmentpolicyfortheoilsectorneedstobeagreed,andexternaltrendsregularlymonitored,Seekconsensusonenvironmenttrade-offsizeofoilindustrytypeofoilactivitieslocationandlogisticscorridorsPubliciseagreedvision,OwnplansLinkageswithowninternationalnetworksImplicationsoflocationsConcreteides,Implicationsofincreaseordecreaseinoilindustrypresence,VROMpartofconsensusLocalauthoritiesbroughtintoconsensusandlocationplanning,Longtermpolicydevelopment,uateinternationaloilindustrytrends,ProvideowninationandbenchmarksoncompetitivenessofDutchoilindustry,Benchmarkcostinfrastructureandcharges,VROMCompareotherEUstatesenvironmentregulations,Regularfeedback,MinistryofEconomicAffairs,OilIndustry,Ports,Other,EnvironmentalprinciplesforoilshouldbalancetheneedforcompetitivenesswithDutchenvironmentneeds,AgreeapproachwithVROMMonitorproposalsthataddextracostabovecompetitorsEnsureonlyimplementedifenvironmentimpacthighReviewexistingtargetsforoilindustrySeekchangesifunduecompetitivepenalty,ProvidecredibleestimatesofcompliancecostsProvidecomparisonswithcompetingareas,Affordableenvironmentpolicy,Flexibleimplementation,VROMOnlyactaheadofcompetitornationsforclearbenefit,VROMRetainflexiblemechanismsforimplementationConsideruseoftradingrights,Atsametime,continuetoencouragewiderEUprogressonenvironmentalstandardsand‘levelplayingfield’,MinistryofEconomicAffairs,OilIndustry,Other,Optimisation,includingscopeforeconomicallyviablerationalisation,mustbeaddressedbytheoilindustry-butwithactiveencouragementoftheMinistry,Explorescope/benefitsofoptimisationand/orrationalisationOptimisewithinowninternationalnetworks,Scopeforoptimisation,RemovebarrierstorationalisationDiscusschangeofapproachtoclean-upcostsofportland,Revealfullpotentialforreleaseofportland,RevieweffectofanythroughputreductionsExplorecost/benefitofportlandreleasedcomparedtolandreclamation,VROMtoreviewlandclean-uprequirements,Barrierstorationalisation,Securesupportofauthoritiesforrationalisation/optimisationVROMCompetitionauthoritiesLocalauthorities,Enablingrole,Objectofoptimisationistosecurelongtermcompetitiveness.Somerationalisationmayalsoreduceemissionsandcongestion,MinistryofEconomicAffairs,OilIndustry,Ports,Other,Furtheractionstomaintainstrongandcompetitiveinfrastructureshouldbeconsidered,ConsiderselectedexistingpipelinesascandidatesNewpipelineinvestmentwhereviable,Logistics,Ensurefastapprovalanddevelopmentofinfrastructureprojects,Competitivelocalauthoritytaxes/rates,Ifbenchmarkingshowsportinefficiency,considerprivatisationMonitorsocialcosts,Portandothercosts,MinistryofEconomicAffairs,OilIndustry,Ports,Other,ConsidercommoncarrierpipelinesJustificationFinancialsupportFairrewardforexistingownersConsiderpotentialscopeOilproductsfromthreeportsLowlevelwasteheatinRotterdamEthyleneinRotterdamCO2collection,KeepportduescompetitivewithEUCo-ordinatepoliciesbetweenthreeoilports,Regulationsandproceduresneedtobeconsistentlyappliedandinsomecasessimplified,DevisestandardpracticeforapplicationofregulationsRemoveconfusionbetweendifferentbodiesofnational/localgovernment,Consistentapplication,Operationalregulations,Regions,municipalitiesandothergovernmentdepartmentstoobservestandardpracticeMakelandusedecisionsforRotterdamsubjecttosingleauthorityRijnmond,SimplifycustomsandoperationrulesComparetootherEUReducenumberofinspections,MinistryofEconomicAffairs,Ports,Other,Bunkerfraud,Taketoughmeasurestoeradicatefraudandrestorereputation,Oilindustry,TheMinistrycanencouragefurtherdevelopmentofsomueaddedactivities,Continuetoencouragegrowthinchemicals,Chemicals,Investwhenviable,MinistryofEconomicAffairs,ProvideincentivesforinvestmentsinLPG/CNGandrenewablesstorage,Cleanerfuels,Promoteco-generationthroughelectricityliberalisation,Co-generation,DevelopagreementtoholdstrategicstocksforotherEUcountries,Storage,Highqualityproducts,,OptimiseownnetworkstorageinternationallyinNWE,Useupgradingadvantagetogainnewhigheradded-valuemarkets,
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