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Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV BowTie visual risk assessment Bowtie可视化风险分析 - a credible ology 一种可靠的风险分析方法 |第二季 3月11日特别附加课 |安全无止境 EHS公益课堂 Paul Haydock Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV 2 BowTie visual risk assessment Bowtie可视化风险分析 - a credible ology 一种可靠的风险分析方法 Quantify using BowTieXL The visual risk analysis tool Advanced | Standard | Navigator SharePoint Enterprise Investigate inherent residual risk assessments How each Threat or Consequence is managed by which barriers What the effectiveness of the barriers are What type of effect I can expect from the barrier Which barriers are critical Who is responsible for each How they can be defeated what we can do to stop them failing What documents or critical activities are relevant to each barrier What corrective actions are needed FURTHER OPTIONS Any incident statistics Barrier failure root causes Audit results Related barriers How often/where barriers are used LOPA Chained diagrams AEnglish Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV 图表能说明什么 9 事情从哪里开始变坏，风险等级是什么 原因是什么，发生的频率以及类别 结果是什么，内因以及次生风险如何评估 每个屏障是如何组织威胁、控制风险的 屏障的有效性是什么 屏障能发挥什么效用 哪些屏障是关键性的 责任人是谁 屏障如何失效以及如何阻止屏障失效 每一个屏障的哪些制度或关键活动相关 需要什么样的改进措施 更多选择更多选择 任意事故数据 屏障失效根源分析 审核结果 相关屏障 如何使用屏障 LOPA 相互链接的表格 BChinese中文 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Keywords of BowtieXP Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV BowtieXP 的关键词 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV 9. Criticality and Type 14. Escalation factors and EF barriers 7. Accountability 5. Description 10. Maintenance 4. Acceptance / status 11. Critical tasks 12. Perance Stds 13. Systems / LOP 3. Name 2. Corrective Actions 8. Verification Due 1. Effectiveness Barriers - optional detail in BowTieXP 有效性 整改措施 名称 状态 描述 负责岗位 整改期限 关键性和类型 维护 关键任务 绩效标准 系统 干扰因素 及屏障 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Threat Acceptance, Category, Frequency Audit questions responses AuditXP Optional Detail Threats威胁, Consequences后果, Audits审核 and Incidents事件 Incident trends causality analysis on Barriers IncidentXP - BSCAT, BFA, Tripod, RCA Risk Assessment 1. Threats威胁 2. Consequences后果 3. Audits审核 4. Incidents事件 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Five specific advantages of a BowTie Five specific advantages of a BowTie Bowtie图表的五个特点 Bowtie图表的五个特点 Structure thinking结构性思维 Capture critical ination抓住关键信息 Ined decision making知情决策 Communication training沟通和培训 Link to MS Perance Stds管理体系 和绩效标准的链接 Reporting to stakeholders向股东汇报 Monitoring barrier status监控屏障状态 Manage first point of failure管理第一个故 障点 Understand maintain barriers分析并保 持屏障 Manager’s know the issues管理层对问题的 了解 14 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV VS. 1 Workshops and Communication 研讨和交流 Engaged employees and participants让员工和 参与者 high commitment effort 高的承诺和努力 improved results提升绩效 15 Participation low参与率低 Confirmation or new ination批准和新信 息 “Let’s not rock the boat”不要破坏计划 Focus easily lost失去焦点 Not easy to challenge Barriers质疑屏障比较难 Corporate blindness – e.g. 减少盲点，比如说 “our procedures only work as intended” 我们只能按照程序规定执行 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV 2 Ins for risk assessment 风险评估的告知 Cause and effect pathways致因路径 16 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Proactive and Reactive主动和被动屏障 3 Early capture of loss of control对失控的及早发现对失控的及早发现 Focus on beginnings of loss of control对失控的及早关注 Allocate money and effort wisely 对资源的合理配置 Compatible with Reason’s defences奶酪模型的应用 17 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Responsibility and Ownership岗位和责任人 4 18 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Simple, concise straight to the point 简单、简洁、直中要害 19 5 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Just one of the s in the toolbox Bowtie是一种方法是一种方法 Use what best suits the current need. 20 IEC DIS 31010 Table A1 Risk Assessment Tools Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV BowTie analysis - 8 steps Bowtie分析的8个步骤 Outcome Outcome Prevention预防预防 Recovery重建重建 2 Escalation Factor Escalation Factor Escalation Factor Barrier Escalation Factor Barrier “What can directly cause a loss of control of the hazard”什么能够直接导致 危害控制措施的失效 什么能够直接导致 危害控制措施的失效 3 “What are the Hazards we are dealing with” 危险源是什么危险源是什么 1 “What occurs when the control over the hazard is lost – the hazard is released”当危害的控制措施失效时， 会发生什么危害能量被释放了吗 当危害的控制措施失效时， 会发生什么危害能量被释放了吗 2 “What outcomes can arise from the top event“顶级事顶级事 件发生后果是什么件发生后果是什么 4 Before After 21 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV BowTie analysis - 8 steps Bowtie分析的8个步骤 Escalation Factor Escalation Factor Escalation Factor Control Escalation Factor Barrier “In what way could the Barriers fail”在什 么情况下屏障失效 在什 么情况下屏障失效 7 “How can we stop the hazard from being release”怎么阻止危怎么阻止危 险能量的释放险能量的释放 5 “How can we reduce the likelihood or severity of the potential out come”如何减少如何减少 潜在风险的发生或严重程度潜在风险的发生或严重程度 6 “How do we maintain the Barriers so they do not fail”我们如何做能我们如何做能 保证屏障不失效保证屏障不失效 8 Before After 22 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Examples of Bowtie risk assessment Bowtie风险评估案例 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Common uses for BowTiesBowtie的基本应用 Road transport, Oil and Gas, Mining Aviation Rail轨道交通、石油和 天然气、煤矿、航空 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Oil and Gas example – left side 石油和天然气案例-左半部分 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Oil and Gas example – right side 石油和天然气案例-右半部分 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV HR人力资源 Marketing市场 Maintenance维修 Construction Project建筑/项目 Provides services to the industry行业服务供应商 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Sales target BowTie销售目标Bowtie图 These threats also belong to the list这些威胁也属于这个列表 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV HR – Hiring BowTie – part 1HR-招聘Bowtie图表-第1部分 请见下页关于这个图表的详情 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV HR – Hiring BowTie – part 2HR-招聘Bowtie图表-第2部分 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Click Chaining corporate risks 公司风险 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Why Bowtie risk assessment 为什么选择Bowtie进行风险评估 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV ISO 31000 standard ISO 31000 标准 BowTieXP BowTieXP IncidentXP AuditXP Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV The aim of this step is to generate a comprehensive list of risks.这一步的主要目的是形成风险清单 Risk identification风险识别 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV HAZID as starting point 重大危害辨识是起点 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV [..] involves developing an understanding of the risk. 包含对风险的理解 Risk analysis风险分析 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Risk Analysis风险分析 Do you have enough barriers屏障足够吗 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Risk Analysis风险分析 Do you have enough barriers屏障足够吗 LOPA plugin Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Understand independencies理解独立性 What if the Engineering Manager... Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV to assist in making decisions,[..] about which risks need treatment and the priority for treatment implementation.可以 帮助管理者进行决策，比如风险的对策措施以及整改措施的优先级等。 Risk uation风险评估 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Risk uation风险评估 What is your risk level 你的风险处于什么级别 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV selecting one or more options for modifying risks, and implementing those options.对风险进行整改，并实施整改措施。 Risk treatment风险整改措施 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Barrier Function屏障功能 43 Haddon 1-8 Haddon 5-8 Haddon 9-10 Barrier function ≠ Barrier types 屏障功能≠屏障类型 Activity Risk Cause 屏障功能屏障功能 1、减少/替代危险源；2、减少威胁；3、 防止顶级事件发生；4、隔离后果；5、使 后果的危害程度降低。 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Barrier Function屏障功能 44 Example 1 热水杯案例分享 Example 2 Removes the Cause Prevents the Risk Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Barrier Function屏障功能 45 Minimises / treats the loss after it occurs减 少对顶级事件的后果 /应急 Shields the target Isolate隔离 Mitigate规避 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Understanding and managing barriers分析和管理屏障 46 And review periodically lifecycle, MOC, integrity Responsibility / Owner责任 人 Independence 独立性 Where it has effect 在何处起 作用 Escalation 干扰因素 Acceptance Criteria屏 障标准 Reliability Adequacy 重要性和充分性 Management System / Crit. Tasks管理系 统/关键任务 Barrier Type屏障 类型 Criticality 重要性 Layers of Protection 防护屏障 Corrective Actions on incidents / failures整 改措施 ALARP最 低合理可 行 Perance 效果 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Communication and consultation with external and internal stakeholders should take place during all stages of the risk management process.在风险 管理过程中的每个环节与内外部股东进行沟通和咨询。 Communication and consultation沟通和咨询 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV VS. Communicating risks沟通风险 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Easy data filtering on the diagram在表格上进行简单数据过滤 Example show only data for specific job title here Maintenance Manager 案例只显现某个岗位的相关数据（此处案 例岗位维修经理） Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Monitoring and review监控和审核 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Monitoring Review监控和审核 How are your barriers pering 你的屏障有用吗 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Monitoring Review监控和审核 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV BowTieXP works on the “Managing risk ToDo list” 1. Hazard and Barrier Identification 2. Risk Analysis 3. Group Risk Workshops 4. Cumulative Risk Assessment 5. uating Risk for MI / MAE 6. Barrier Analysis and management 7. Qualitative / Semi / quantified risk 8. Interface with Management Systems and Critical Tasks 9. ALARP 10.Linking of Perance Standards 11.Implementation and Process safeguards 12.Audits on Barriers 13.Incident Analysis down to Barriers 14.Risk Monitoring and Review 15.Communication and Consulting 16. etc. 53 Legend BowTieXP assists the process AEnglish Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV BowTieXP works on the “Managing risk ToDo list” BowtieXp在风险管理中的作用 1. 危险源和屏障识别危险源和屏障识别 2. 风险分析风险分析 3. 风险研讨会风险研讨会 4. 风险评估沟通风险评估沟通 5. 为MI / MAE进行风险评估 6. 屏障分析和管理屏障分析和管理 7. 定性的定性的/半定性的半定性的/定量的风险定量的风险 8. 将管理体系和关键任务关联将管理体系和关键任务关联 9. ALARP最低合理可行原则最低合理可行原则 10.关联业绩标准 11.执行和流程管理 12.屏障审核屏障审核 13.最终到屏障的事件分析最终到屏障的事件分析 14.风险监控和审核风险监控和审核 15.交流和咨询交流和咨询 16.等等。等等。 54 Legend图例图例 BowTieXP assists the process BowtieXP协助进行流程管理协助进行流程管理 B中文 Chinese Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Summary 总结总结 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Four Risk Analysis steps in BowTies Bowtie中风险分析的四个步骤 56 Identify识别 Assess评估 Control控制 Recover重建 Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Copyright 2012 IP Bank BV Thank you Paul Haydock CGE Risk Management Solutions paul.haydock support CGE Absolute Agent in Asia Jobsafety Solutions Kelly Liang training Tele 86 18682138296
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